
version 18


cd"C:\Users\Margit Bussmann\OneDrive\Bussmann_aktuell\DatenAnalysen\Analysen\FranceInterventions\

use FranceDiversionaryTests, replace

*TESTS OF DIVERSIONARY BEHAVIOR, Table 1

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice, robust cluster(president)

logit onset L.confidence_president L.onsetpeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice, robust cluster(president)

logit fatalonset L.confidence_president L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice, robust cluster(president)

logit initiation L.confidence_president L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice, robust cluster(president)

logit onsetforce L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice cpi, robust cluster(president)

logit onsetforce L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice unemployment, robust cluster(president)


* Graph 1 
logit onsetforce L.confidence_president, robust cluster(president)
estimates store fullsample

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president if cw==1, robust cluster(president)
estimates store cwsample

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president if cw==0, robust cluster(president)
estimates store postcwsample

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president if Mitterrand==1
estimates store Mitterrandsample

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president if Chirac==1
estimates store Chiracsample


# del;
coefplot (fullsample, offset(0.20) mcolor(gray)  ciopts(lcolor(gray))) (cwsample,  offset(0.10) mcolor(black)  ciopts(lcolor(black)))(postcwsample, mcolor(green) ciopts(lcolor(green))) (Mitterrandsample, offset(-0.10) mcolor(red)  ciopts(lcolor(red))) (Chiracsample, offset(-0.20) mcolor(blue)  ciopts(lcolor(blue))), drop (_cons L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID monthsinoffice cpi) xline(0, lcolor(black) lwidth(thin) lpattern(dash)) 
coeflabels(L.confidence_president="level of approval ratings") ;
# del cr; 

*graph save "Graph" "C:\Users\Margit Bussmann\OneDrive\Bussmann_aktuell\DatenAnalysen\Analysen\FranceInterventions\Coefplot_timeperiods.gph", replace


*Various tests of robustness (appendix)
logit crisis L.confidence_president L.crisispeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice, robust cluster(president)

logit IMIonset L.confidence_president L.IMIonsetpeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice, robust cluster(president)

logit onsetforce L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice GDPgrowth1, robust cluster(president)

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice cohabitation, robust cluster(president)

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president  L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice backswing6 honeymoon, robust cluster(president)

logit onsetforce L.confidence_president  L.onsetforcepeaceyrs totalstatesinMID cinc monthsinoffice L.protest, robust cluster(president)


* TESTS OF RALLY EFFECT, Table 2

arfima confidence_president_i L.onsetforce honeymoon cohabitation cpi, ar(1)

arfima confidence_president_i L.onsetforce honeymoon cohabitation unemployment, ar(1)

arfima confidence_president_i L.onset honeymoon cohabitation cpi, ar(1)

arfima confidence_president_i L.fatalonset honeymoon cohabitation cpi, ar(1)


*robustness tests (appendix)
arfima confidence_president_i L.onsetforce honeymoon cohabitation GDPgrowth1, ar(1)

arfima confidence_president_i L.onsetforce honeymoon cohabitation cpi backswing, ar(1)

arfima confidence_president_i L.crisis honeymoon cohabitation cpi, ar(1)

arfima confidence_president_i L.IMIonset honeymoon cohabitation cpi, ar(1)

arima confidence_president_i L.onsetforce honeymoon cohabitation cpi, arima (1,1,1)


arfima confidence_president_i L.onsetforce honeymoon cohabitation cpi if Mitterrand==1, ar(1)

arfima confidence_president_i L.onsetforce honeymoon cohabitation cpi if Chirac==1, ar(1)


*Robustness tests with dyadic data (appendix)
use FranceIntervention_dyadic_Feb2024

logit cowmidonsetforce confidence_president polity22 cincratio capdist Sscore cowmidspell, cluster(ccode2)

logit cowmidonset confidence_president polity22 cincratio capdist Sscore cowmidspell, cluster(ccode2)

logit cowmidonsetfatal confidence_president polity22 cincratio capdist Sscore cowmidspell, cluster(ccode2)

logit cowmidonsetFinitiate confidence_president polity22 cincratio capdist Sscore cowmidspell, cluster(ccode2)

